COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS
"INFORMATION PUBLISHED BY AN
AGENCY OF THE US GOVERNMENT,
BECAUSE THEY THINK YOU HAVE
THE RIGHT TO KNOW"
EXPLANATION OF REPORT
AND
TRADING STRATEGY DISCUSSION
presented by: George J. Slezak,
Web Site Editor of www. Commitments of Traders .com, Commodity Broker
E-Mail George at george @georgeslezak.com
Copyright 1998 - 2004 George J. Slezak, Bonita Springs, FL
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George Slezak's COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS WEB SITE
Published every week at "www. Commitments of
Traders .com"
showing:
Details of the CFTC report for the most active commodities,
Twelve week summary of Net Commercial Position including
one year, three year, and five year range.
One Year, Three year and Ten year charts of futures prices with COT
data plotted
For more information, visit www.commitmentsoftraders.com
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Understanding the Commercial
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INTRODUCTION
The Commitments of Traders Report can be a valuable source of market information for traders. The report is released by the CFTC every week on Friday (with delayed release occasionally because of holidays). (Prior to 10/2000 the report was released bi-weekly.) The information is based on actual data as of the close of business each Tuesday, so the release on Friday is information for Tuesday of the current week.
In general terms, the report explains "who is doing what" in the various commodity markets. From the point of view of a trader, simply having that information does not mean you will have a successful trade. You need to have an understanding of the possible reasons "WHY who is doing what," "WHAT might happen to them if they keep doing it," and then have some tools to help decide "WHEN they may begin to start doing something else."
The CTFC report focuses on the large positions of the "Commercials" and the "Large Speculators". This is considered important market information because it is assumed that large traders don't take on large positions unless they have had some success in the past, and know something special about the market they are in.
On the following pages I am providing detailed information of how the report is developed, and some of the detailed information that "large" traders, both commercials and large specs, must be concerned about in maintaining their positions. Knowing how they think, and the kind of things that may cause them to change their positions, can give us insights into the markets.
In the second section, I discuss the business of the Commercials in both the physical commodities and the financial futures. We need an understanding of how and why they use the futures markets if we are going to consider their net position of importance in making our own trading judgments.
In the third section, I discuss some trading strategies, and commonly used technical analysis tools that can be helpful in making trading decisions focusing around using the COT information.
To provide some additional information on the overall futures markets, I have developed an index of the net commercial positions called the %COT. The index is explained in this section of this report and some trading strategies based on the index.
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THE CFTC
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is an agency of the US Government created in 1974 with the responsibility to monitor and enforce laws over the trading of futures contracts on established commodity exchanges in the US. Their role over the commodities markets is similar to the role of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) over the securities market (stock market).
As chief cop over the commodities markets, the CFTC enforces rules to maintain fair and orderly markets. Over the years, one of the abuses of the commodity markets has been the attempts to "corner" a given market, resulting in price movements that could be out of control with potential negative implications on our economy. To prevent this from occurring, "speculative position limits" and other guidelines were established. Each commodity traded has a speculative position limit, which is the maximum number of contracts (either long or short) that can be held by, or for the benefit of, a trading entity.
Speculative position limits apply to "both" sides of the market. A "long" position is where a trader buys a contract anticipating a price rise, and intends to close his transaction by a subsequent sale of his long contract. A "short" position is where a trader sells a contract anticipating a price decline, and intends to close his transaction by a subsequent purchase of his short contract.
The CFTC updated the following background report of the Commitments of Traders in January, 2002:
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. CFTC Backgrounder Number: 4-91 Date: January 2002
The Commitments of Traders ReportThe first Commitments of Traders (COT) report was published for 13 agricultural commodities as of June 30, 1962. At the time, this report was proclaimed as "another step forward in the policy of providing the public with current and basic data on futures market operations." Those original reports were compiled on an end-of-month basis and were published on the 11th or 12th calendar day of the following month. Over the years, in a continuous effort to inform better the public about futures markets, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has improved the COT in several ways. The COT report is published more often—switching to mid-month and month-end in 1990, to every 2 weeks in 1992, and to weekly in 2000. The COT report is released more quickly—moving the publication to the 6th business day after the "as of" date (1990) and then to the 3rd business day after the "as of" date (1992). The report includes more information—adding data on the numbers of traders in each category, a crop-year breakout, and concentration ratios (early 1970s) and data on option positions (1995). The report also is more widely available—moving from a subscription-based mailing list to fee-based electronic access (1993) to being freely available on the Commission’s internet website (1995). The COT reports provide a breakdown of each Tuesday's open interest for markets in which 20 or more traders hold positions equal to or above the reporting levels established by the CFTC. The weekly reports for Futures-Only Commitments of Traders and for Futures-and-Options-Combined Commitments of Traders are released every Friday at 3:30 p.m. Eastern time. Reports are available in both a short and long format. The short report shows open interest separately by reportable and nonreportable positions. For reportable positions, additional data are provided for commercial and non-commercial holdings, spreading, changes from the previous report, percents of open interest by category, and numbers of traders. The long report, in addition to the information in the short report, also groups the data by crop year, where appropriate, and shows the concentration of positions held by the largest four and eight traders. Current and historical Commitments of Traders data are available on the Internet at the Commission’s website: http://www.cftc.gov. Also available at that site are historical COT data going back to 1986 for futures-only reports and to 1995 for option-and-futures-combined reports. Example A page from the June 13, 2000, COT report (short format) showing data for the Chicago Board of Trade's wheat futures contract is reproduced below. Explanatory notes follow the table. WHEAT - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
REPORTABLE POSITIONS AS OF 06/13/00 |
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NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
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LONG | SHORT |SPREADING| LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
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(CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) OPEN INTEREST: 132,258
COMMITMENTS
23,191 29,740 17,964 51,732 61,646 92,887 109,350 39,371 22,908
CHANGES FROM 06/06/00 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 1,652)
-1,627 -664 -1,407 3,071 5,534 37 3,463 1,615 -1,811
PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
17.5 22.5 13.6 39.1 46.6 70.2 82.7 29.8 17.3
NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 277)
94 79 68 59 55 200 175
Explanatory Notes Open Interest - Open interest is the total of all futures and/or option contracts entered into and not yet offset by a transaction, by delivery, by exercise, etc. The aggregate of all long open interest is equal to the aggregate of all short open interest. Open interest held or controlled by a trader is referred to as that trader's position. For the COT Option & Futures Combined report, option open interest and traders' option positions are computed on a futures-equivalent basis using delta factors supplied by the exchanges. Long-call and short-put open interest are converted to long futures-equivalent open interest. Likewise, short-call and long-put open interest are converted to short futures-equivalent open interest. For example, a trader holding a long put position of 500 contracts with a delta factor of 0.50 is considered to be holding a short futures-equivalent position of 250 contracts. A trader's long and short futures-equivalent positions are added to the trader's long and short futures positions to give "combined-long" and "combined-short" positions. Open interest, as reported to the Commission and as used in the COT report, does not include open futures contracts against which notices of deliveries have been stopped by a trader or issued by the clearing organization of an exchange. Reportable Positions - Clearing members, futures commission merchants, and foreign brokers (collectively called "reporting firms") file daily reports with the Commission. Those reports show the futures and option positions of traders that hold positions above specific reporting levels set by CFTC regulations. (Current Commission reporting levels can also be found at the Commission’s website noted above.) If, at the daily market close, a reporting firm has a trader with a position at or above the Commission’s reporting level in any single futures month or option expiration, it reports that trader’s entire position in all futures and options expiration months in that commodity, regardless of size. The aggregate of all traders’ positions reported to the Commission usually represents 70 to 90 percent of the total open interest in any given market. From time to time, the Commission will raise or lower the reporting levels in specific markets to strike a balance between collecting sufficient information to oversee the markets and minimizing the reporting burden on the futures industry. Commercial and Non-commercial Traders – When an individual reportable trader is identified to the Commission, the trader is classified either as "commercial" or "non-commercial." All of a trader's reported futures positions in a commodity are classified as commercial if the trader uses futures contracts in that particular commodity for hedging as defined in the Commission's regulations (1.3(z)). A trading entity generally gets classified as a "commercial" by filing a statement with the Commission (on CFTC Form 40) that it is commercially "…engaged in business activities hedged by the use of the futures or option markets." In order to ensure that traders are classified with accuracy and consistency, the Commission staff may exercise judgment in re-classifying a trader if it has additional information about the trader’s use of the markets. A trader may be classified as a commercial in some commodities and as a non-commercial in other commodities. A single trading entity cannot be classified as both a commercial and non-commercial in the same commodity. Nonetheless, a multi-functional organization that has more than one trading entity may have each trading entity classified separately in a commodity. For example, a financial organization trading in financial futures may have a banking entity whose positions are classified as commercial and have a separate money-management entity whose positions are classified as non-commercial. Nonreportable Positions - The long and short open interest shown as "Nonreportable Positions" are derived by subtracting total long and short "Reportable Positions" from the total open interest. Accordingly, for "Nonreportable Positions," the number of traders involved and the commercial/non-commercial classification of each trader are unknown. Spreading - For the futures-only report, spreading measures the extent to which each non-commercial trader holds equal long and short futures positions. For the options-and-futures-combined report, spreading measures the extent to which each non-commercial trader holds equal combined-long and combined-short positions. For example, if a non-commercial trader in Eurodollar futures holds 2,000 long contracts and 1,500 short contracts, 500 contracts will appear in the "Long" category and 1,500 contracts will appear in the "Spreading" category. These figures do not include intermarket spreading, e.g., spreading Eurodollar futures against Treasury Note futures. [See a further explanation of "spreading" under the "Old and Other Futures" caption below.] Changes in Commitments from Previous Reports - Changes represent the differences between the data for the current report date and the data published in the previous report. Percent of Open Interest – Percents are calculated against the total open interest for the futures-only report and against the total futures-equivalent open interest for the options-and-futures-combined report. Percents less than 0.05 are shown as 0.0, and the percents may not add to exactly 100.0 due to rounding. Number of Traders - To determine the total number of reportable traders in a market, a trader is counted only once regardless whether the trader appears in more than one category (non-commercial long or short only, non-commercial spreading, and commercial long or short). To determine the number of traders in each category, however, a trader is counted in each category in which the trader holds a position. Therefore, the sum of the numbers of traders in each category will often exceed the "Total" number of traders in that market. Old and Other Futures (long form only) - For selected commodities where there is a well-defined marketing season or crop year, the COT data are broken down by "old" and "other" crop years. Table 1 (below) lists those commodities and the first and last futures of the marketing season or crop year. In order not to disclose positions in a single future near its expiration, on the first day of the month of the last future in an "old" crop year, the data for that last future are combined with the data for the next crop year and are shown as "old" crop futures. For example, in corn, where the first month of the crop year is December and the last month of the prior crop year is September, on September 1, 2000, positions in the September 2000 futures month were aggregated with positions in the December 2000 through September 2001 futures months and shown as "old" crop futures—positions in all subsequent corn futures months were shown as "other." For the "old" and "other" figures, spreading is calculated for equal long and short positions within a crop year. If a non-commercial trader holds a long position in an "old" crop-year future and an equal short position in an "other" crop-year future, the long position will be classified as "long-only" in the "old" crop year and the short position will be classified as "short-only" in the "other" crop year. In this example, in the "all" category, which considers each trader's positions without regard to crop year, that trader's positions will be classified as "spreading." For this reason, summing the "old" and "other" figures for long-only, for short-only, or for spreading will not necessarily equal the corresponding figure shown for "all" futures. Any differences result from traders that spread from an "old" crop-year future to an "other" crop-year future. Concentration Ratios (long form only) - The report shows the percents of open interest held by the largest four and eight reportable traders, without regard to whether they are classified as commercial or non-commercial. The concentration ratios are shown with trader positions computed on a gross long and gross short basis and on a net long or net short basis. The "Net Position" ratios are computed after offsetting each trader’s equal long and short positions. Thus a reportable trader with relatively large, balanced long and short positions in a single market may be among the four and eight largest traders in both the gross long and gross short categories, but will probably not be included among the four and eight largest traders on a net basis. [See Below: Table 1, Major Markets for Which the COT Data Are Shown by Crop Year.] Table 1 Major Markets for Which the COT Data Are Shown by Crop Year:
(*) CBOT: Chicago Board of Trade; MACE: MidAmerica Commodity Exchange; KCBT: Kansas City Board of Trade; MGE: Minneapolis Grain Exchange; CME: Chicago Mercantile Exchange; NYBT: New York Board of Trade. # # #
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Position Limits
The CFTC has the following document on "Position Limits":
| Number: 3-92 Date: April 2004 SPECULATIVE
LIMITS, HEDGING, AND AGGREGATION IN To protect futures markets from excessive speculation that can cause unreasonable or unwarranted price fluctuations, the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) authorizes the CFTC (Commission) to impose limits on the size of speculative positions in futures markets. Furthermore, exchanges are required by CFTC rule 150.5 to adopt speculative limit rules for certain other contracts not subject to CFTC speculative limits. There are three basic elements to the regulatory framework for speculative position limits. They are: (1) the size (or levels) of the limits themselves; (2) the exemptions from the limits (for example, for hedge positions); and (3) the policy on aggregating accounts for purposes of applying the limits. This Backgrounder covers the current rules and policies for speculative position limits, hedging, and aggregation as they apply to commodity futures and options. Attached is a guide to the speculative limit levels that apply to major markets. Speculative Position Limits The CEA, §4a(a), specifically holds that excessive speculation in a commodity traded for future delivery may cause "sudden or unreasonable fluctuations or unwarranted changes in the price of such commodity." That section provides that, for the purpose of diminishing, eliminating, or preventing such problems, the Commission may fix limits on the amount of speculative trading that may be done or speculative positions that may be held in contracts for future delivery. All agricultural and natural resource and many financial futures and option contracts are subject to speculative position limits. For several markets (corn, oats, wheat, soybeans, soybean oil, soybean meal, and cotton), the limits are determined by the Commission and set out in Federal regulations. For all other markets, the limits are determined by the exchanges according to standards established by the Commission. Violations of exchange-set limits are subject to exchange disciplinary action, and the Commission may institute enforcement action against violations of exchange speculative limit rules that have been approved by the Commission. The Commission does not require that exchanges set position-limit levels for markets that have Federal speculative limits or for markets in major foreign currencies. For all other markets, acceptable speculative-limit levels typically combine futures and options on a delta-adjusted basis, as well as set absolute levels for gross option positions. For new markets, exchanges are required to set the initial position-limit levels for non-spot months at a minimum of 1,000 contracts for tangible commodities and 5,000 contracts for financial and energy markets. For existing markets, reasonable single-month and all-months-combined limits are generally no larger than 10 percent of the open interest up to a level of 25,000 contracts, with a marginal increase of 2.5 percent after that. Speculative limits in physical-delivery markets are generally set at a lower level during the spot month (the month when the futures contract matures and becomes deliverable). Lower limits in the spot month are important because that is when physical delivery may be required and when the contract may be more vulnerable to price fluctuation caused by abnormally large positions or disorderly trading practices. The Commission requires that spot-month levels for physical-delivery markets be based upon an analysis of deliverable supplies and the history of spot-month liquidations. Specifically the spot-month limits for physical-delivery markets must be no more than 25 percent of the deliverable supply. For cash-settled markets, spot-month position limits should be no greater than necessary to minimize the potential for manipulation or distortion of the contract’s or the underlying commodity’s price. After 12 months of trading, exchanges are permitted to replace position limits with "accountability" rules for qualifying contracts on financial instruments, intangible commodities, or certain tangible commodities. In order to qualify for accountability rules, these markets must meet requirements with respect to average month-end open interest and average daily volume and have a highly liquid cash market. If a market has accountability rules, a trader—whether speculating or hedging—is not subject to a specific limit. Once a trader reaches a preset accountability level, however, he must provide information about his positions upon request by the exchange. Depending upon the size of the market and type of commodity, any trader over the accountability level must also consent to stop increasing his position if so ordered by the exchange. (The specific requirements that exchanges must meet in order to adopt accountability rules are set out in Commission Rule 150.5(e).) Exemptions The Commission and exchanges grant exemptions to their position limits for bona fide hedging (as defined in Commission Rule 1.3(z)). A hedge is a futures or option transaction or position that normally represents a substitute for transactions to be made or positions to be taken at a later time in a physical marketing channel. Hedges must be economically appropriate to the reduction of risk for a commercial enterprise and must arise from a change in the value of hedger's (current or anticipated) assets or liabilities. A short hedge, for example, includes sales for future delivery (short futures positions) that do not exceed the amount of the commodity that the seller owns, has agreed to purchase (for a fixed price), or anticipates producing during the next 12 months. A long hedge includes long futures positions that do not exceed the hedger's fixed-price sales or 12 months' unfilled anticipated requirements for processing or manufacturing. There are a number of technical provisions relating to eligibility for hedge exemptions, including the treatment of cross hedging and applications to the Commission for case-by-case exemptions in special circumstances. There is also the important requirement, that: "… no transactions or position will be classified as bona fide hedging... unless their purpose is to offset price risks incidental to commercial cash or spot operations and such positions are established and liquidated in an orderly manner in accordance with sound commercial practices. …" [Commission Rule 1.3(z), emphasis added]. Exchanges may also grant exemptions for spreads, straddles, or arbitrage, or other exemptions that are consistent with the purposes of position-limit rules. The Commission requires that exchanges establish a program for traders to apply for these exemptions and be granted a specific exemption level higher than the applicable speculative limit rather than simply be granted a limitless hedge exemption. Exchanges sometimes disallow or place severe restrictions on exemptions during the last several days of trading in a delivery month. The Commission periodically reviews how each exchange grants exemptions, how it monitors compliance with its limits, and what types of regulatory action (warnings, fines, trading suspensions, etc.) the exchange takes once a violation of a position limit or exemption is detected. In the several markets with Federal limits, hedgers must file a report with the Commission if their futures/option positions exceed the speculative position limits (see Commission Rules Part 19). That report must be filed monthly or in response to a request by the Commission. It shows the trader’s positions in the cash market and is used to check whether the trader has sufficient cash position to justify futures/option positions in excess of the speculative position limits. Aggregation Requirements In order to achieve the intended effect of the speculative position limits, the Commission and the exchanges treat multiple positions that are subject to common ownership or control as if they were a single trader. Accounts are considered to be under common ownership if there is a 10 percent or greater financial interest. The rules are applied in a manner calculated to aggregate related accounts. For example, each participant with a 10 percent or greater interest in a partnership account must aggregate the entire position of the partnership—not just their fractional share—together with whatever positions they may hold separately from the partnership. Likewise, a pool comprised of many traders is allowed only to hold positions as if it were a single trader. The Commission also treats accounts that are not otherwise related, but are acting pursuant to an express or implied agreement, as a single aggregated position for purposes of applying the limits. There are narrow exceptions to the aggregation rules for limited partners and pool participants that have no knowledge of, or control over, the positions of the pool. Also exempted are commodity pool operators or commodity trading advisors with commonly-owned but independently-controlled market positions. Entities claiming this exemption are required, upon call by the Commission, to provide information supporting their claim that the account controllers for these positions are acting completely independently of each other (see table below). GUIDE TO SPECULATIVE POSITION LIMITS (See Note 1) For Major Futures/Option Markets (in contracts)
NOTE 1: This table is only a general guide to speculative position limits and includes futures/option markets that had a combined open interest of approximately 10,000 contracts or greater recently. The limits are subject to change. They are generally based upon "futures equivalent" positions, i.e., futures plus delta-adjusted options. There may be separate limits on gross option positions. The "spot month" is defined in many different ways, but generally refers to the nearest futures month beginning on a date near the first business day of the month in which the futures expires or on a date near the first day that delivery notices can be tendered. Some spot-month limits apply to both hedge and speculative positions. For the current rules and interpretations, see Commission Rules Part 150 and consult the appropriate exchange. # # #
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Since any given commodity is traded at multiple exchanges (Silver futures are traded at the Chicago Board of Trade, at the COMEX, and at the Mid America Commodity Exchange), and traders can have accounts at multiple Futures Clearing Merchants (FCM's are the Exchange member firms that hold customer accounts trading on the Futures Exchanges), the accumulation and monitoring of position data had to be centralized in the hands of someone with authority over the various exchanges and entities.
The accumulation of this information is considered to be important data on the activities of the market participants, and in order to promote fair and orderly markets, the CFTC began publishing a report titled "The Commitments of Traders" in the 70's. This report shows the reported positions of trading accounts of commercial hedge accounts and large speculators. This information is then combined with open interest information supplied by the exchanges to show the balance of positions as the small speculator.
CFTC releases on the Internet
Today, the FCM's report data daily to the CFTC. The CFTC prepares reports on the data as of the close of business each Tuesday. The information is released to the public every Friday (adjusted for holidays). The report is distributed to the public by posting on the internet.
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REPORTABLE POSITIONS
Since the daily reporting requirement of the FCM to the CFTC is to monitor position levels that could have an effect of the overall market pricing, the CFTC has established levels for identifying reportable positions. Through these reporting levels, the CFTC is able to monitor over 80% of the open interest of the individual futures markets. (Open interest is the total number of contracts outstanding as of the close of any given day. To calculate, the exchanges sum the short positions in each account by contract.)
If an account has an open position in a commodity equaling or exceeding the reporting level, it is considered a "special account" and specific information is reported to the CTFC by the FCM (Futures Clearing Merchant - the firm with the customer commodity account).
The CFTC has the following documents on "Reportable Positions" :
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1-01 Date: October 2001 THE CFTC’s LARGE-TRADER REPORTING SYSTEM As a part of its market surveillance program, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (Commission) operates a comprehensive system of collecting information on market participants. Under rules set out in Parts 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, and 21 of the Regulations under the Commodity Exchange Act (CEAct),[1] the Commission collects market data and position information from exchanges, clearing members, futures commission merchants (FCMs), foreign brokers, and traders. The Commission has assigned confidential reporting numbers to reporting firms and traders to ensure the privacy of the information they provide. Except under limited circumstances, the Commission is prohibited (under §8 of the CEAct) from publicly disclosing any person’s positions, transactions, or trade secrets. Clearing-Member Data. In addition to providing public data on trading volume, open contracts, futures delivery notices, exchanges of futures for cash, and prices, exchanges must provide the Commission (under Part 16) with confidential information on the aggregate positions and trading activity of each of their clearing members. Each day as of the previous day’s close, exchanges report each clearing member’s open long and short positions, purchases and sales, exchanges of futures for cash, and futures delivery notices. These data are reported separately by proprietary and customer accounts by futures month and, for options, by puts and calls by expiration date and strike price. A portion of the clearing-member data for a specific market might look like this: Table 1: Clearing-Member Data
The Commission staff use these data to identify large cleared positions, in single markets or across many markets and exchanges, to audit large-trader reports, and to identify account aggregation issues. Clearing-member data, however, do not identify the beneficial owners of positions. The aggregate customer position reported for a clearing member may represent a single trader or numerous traders. Moreover, the data also would not reveal a circumstance where a single trader controls substantial portions of the customer positions at more than one clearing member and, therefore, controls a substantial portion of the market. To address these limitations on clearing-member data, the Commission has at the heart of its market surveillance program a large-trader reporting system. Large-Trader Data. Market surveillance must assess an individual trader’s activities and potential power in a market and enforce the limits on speculative positions. To do this in markets characterized by substantial numbers of customers trading through intermediaries, the Commission and the exchanges employ a comprehensive large-trader reporting system (LTRS). Under the Commission’s LTRS, clearing members, FCMs, and foreign brokers (collectively called “reporting firms”) file daily reports with the Commission (under Part 17). Those reports show the futures and option positions of traders that hold positions at or above specific reporting levels set by the Commission. (A list of current reporting levels can be found in Part 15 of the Commission’s regulations and at the Commission’s website.) If, at the daily market close, a reporting firm has a trader with a position at or above the Commission’s reporting level in any single futures month or option expiration, the firm reports that trader’s entire position in all futures and options expiration months in that commodity, regardless of size. The aggregate of all large-traders’ positions reported to the Commission usually represents 70 to 90 percent of the total open interest in any given market. The reporting level for large-trader reports ranges from 25 contracts to 1000 contracts. The level for any given market is based on the total open positions in that market, the size of positions held by traders in the market, the surveillance history of the market, and, for the physical-delivery markets, the size of deliverable supplies. From time to time, the Commission will raise or lower the reporting levels in specific markets to strike a balance between collecting sufficient information to oversee the markets and minimizing the reporting burden on the futures industry and the public. (The Commission publishes aggregate data concerning reported positions in its weekly “Commitments of Traders” reports, which are available at the Commission’s website and the subject of a separate Backgrounder. Since traders frequently carry futures positions through more than one broker and since individuals sometimes control or have a financial interest in more than one account, the Commission routinely collects information that enables its surveillance staff to aggregate related accounts. Specifically, reporting firms must file a CFTC Form 102, to identify each new account that acquires a reportable position.[2] In addition, once an account reaches a reportable size, the Commission may contact the trader directly and require that the trader file a more detailed identification report, a CFTC Form 40 (under Part 18). These two forms—the 102 and the 40—allow the Commission to identify the name and address of the account, the person(s) controlling the trading, the person to contact regarding trading, the nature of the account (e.g., whether it’s an omnibus account for another broker or it’s an individual account), whether the reported account is related—by financial interest or control—to another account, and the principal occupation or business of the account owner. These forms also show whether the account is used for hedging cash market exposure and, if so, which futures/option markets are used and what merchandising or marketing activities are involved. (Blank copies of the Form 102 and Form 40 are available for viewing and downloading at the CFTC website.) The Commission staff use this information to determine whether the reported account is a new trader or simply an additional account of an existing trader. This determines whether the trading activity in the new account needs to be aggregated with that of other accounts currently being reported or which may be reported in the future. Only by properly identifying and aggregating accounts can the surveillance staff make a thorough assessment of a trader’s potential market impact and a trader’s compliance with speculative position limits. The Commission uses various means to ensure the accuracy of its large-trader data. The large-trader positions reported by clearing members are compared to clearing-member data reported by the exchanges. An inquiry is made if: a) the sum of a clearing member’s large-trader positions exceeds the member’s open cleared position, or b) a clearing member has a cleared position many times the reporting level for a given market, but reports little or no large-trader positions. This same procedure is used to compare large-trader data reported by non-clearing FCM’s and foreign brokers to the total positions they are carrying at other brokers or clearing members. Reporting firms are also subject to on-site audits by exchange and Commission staff. Through various software, the raw large-trader data are transformed into analytical reports. A Commission economist may view the largest traders in a specific market, a single trader across several markets, or a trader’s pattern of trading over a specific time period. A typical listing of large-trader data might look like this: Table 2: Large-Trader Data
The Commission also has the authority (under Part 18) to require that a trader furnish large-trader data by filing a Form 103 report showing open futures and option positions, purchases and sales, futures deliveries, and option exercises on a daily basis for a specific period of time. Although this method of obtaining large-trader data is not used frequently, it can be useful where a trader is trading through a number of reporting firms and there is concern that the normal data-collection process is missing some important information. As an additional source of information that allows surveillance economists to investigate whether there is a threat of a market manipulation or other market disorder, the Commission may issue a “special call” to a reporting firm or a trader (under Parts 21 or 18). The special call is designed to gain additional information about a firm’s traders or about a participant’s trading and delivery activity, including information on persons who control or have a financial interest in the account. A special call may also request information about positions and transactions in the underlying commodity. This mechanism may be used when a broker (domestic or foreign) is carrying large open positions but is showing few, if any, reportable accounts. A special call may also be used when a trader is using too many brokers to be easily monitored through required reports, when the trader holds positions below the reporting level, or when part of a trader's position is being carried through a foreign broker and the required information is not received from the broker or customer in a timely fashion or is not readily available for inspection. Cash-Position Data. In the several markets with Federal speculative position limits (grains, the soy complex, and cotton), hedgers that hold positions in excess of those limits must file a monthly report with the Commission (under Part 19). Those reports —a Form 204 for grains and the soy complex and a Form 304 for cotton—show the trader’s positions in the cash market and are used to determine whether the trader has sufficient cash positions to justify futures and option positions above the speculative limits. In the cotton market, merchants and dealers file a weekly Form 304 report of their unfixed-price cash positions. That report is used to publish a weekly “Cotton On Call” report, which is published as a service to the cotton industry and shows how many unfixed-price cash cotton purchases and sales are outstanding against each cotton futures month. Traders that hold reportable positions in designated futures and option markets must keep records showing all details concerning their positions and transactions in the futures and options and in the underlying commodity (under Part 18). This includes inventories, purchases, and sales of the cash commodity represented by the futures market, as well as its products and byproducts. Upon request by the Commission, a trader must furnish the Commission with any pertinent information about those positions or transactions. In summary, the Commission operates an extensive reporting system that includes timely data on clearing members and large traders. These data are the core of a comprehensive market surveillance program that monitors the Nation’s futures markets on a daily basis in order to preserve these markets’ economic functions of hedging and price discovery. # # # [1] These regulations are published in Title 17, Chapter I of the Code of Federal Regulations. [2] This same CFTC Form 102 is used by futures exchanges that have their own large-trader reporting systems.
CFTC Large-Trader
Reporting Levels1
Effective: 11/20/2002
COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) summarizes weekly, and releases biweekly, data on the open interest for markets in which five or more traders hold positions equal to or above the reporting levels established by the Commission. The tables show open interest separately by reportable and non-reportable positions. For reportable positions, additional data are provided on commercial and noncommercial holdings, spreading and numbers of traders. The information reported to the CFTC by the FCM when an special account has a position meeting these requirements includes: Name Address Business phone Account number Business or occupation Type of account Account controller Name and address of anyone with a 10% financial interest in such account Position, deliveries, hedges, etc This information is reported on CFTC Form 102. Explanatory Notes Open Interest -A futures contract is said to be ``open'' when it has been entered into and not yet liquidated by an offsetting transaction or fulfilled by delivery. Contracts that are open are referred to as ``Open Interest.'' The aggregate of all long open interest is equal to the aggregate of all short open interest. Open interest as reported to the Commission and as used in the COT Report does not include open futures contracts against which notices of deliveries have been stopped by a trader or issued by the clearing organization of an exchange. Open interest held or controlled by a trader is referred to as that trader's futures position. Reportable Positions - Clearing members, futures commission merchants (FCMs), and foreignbrokers are required to make daily reports to the Commission showing each trader's positions on their books that, in any future month of a commodity, exceed the reporting level. Open interest figures show the aggregate positions reported by all clearing members, FCMs, and foreign brokers. Positions of individual traders are classified either as ``commercial'' or ``noncommercial.'' All of a trader's reported futures positions in a commodity are classified as commercial if the trader uses futures contracts traded in the particular commodity for hedging as defined in the Commission's regulations. Non-reportable Positions - Traders' positions that are below the reporting level are classified as ``non-reportable.'' The aggregate long and short open interest shown as non-reportable positions are derived by subtracting reported positions from the total open interest. Accordingly, for non- reportable positions, the number of traders involved and the commercial/noncommercial classification of each trader are unknown. Spreading - In ``All'' futures, spreading includes each trader's reported long and short positions in the same market to the extent they are balanced. These figures do not include intermarket spreading. Changes in Commitments from Previous Reports - Changes represent the differences between the data for the current report and the previous report, including any adjustments made since the previous report was published. Percentages of Open Interest; Number of Traders - In determining the total number of traders, a trader's long and/or short position is counted only once regardless if the trader appears in more than one category (noncommercial long or short only, noncommercial spreading, and commercial). In determining the number of traders in each category, a trader is counted as long and/or short for each category in which the trader holds a position. |
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THE "COMMERCIAL
HEDGER"
The CFTC has the following information on identifying an account as a commercial account in their background report on the Commitments of Traders Report:
Commercial and Non-commercial Traders – When an individual reportable trader is identified to the Commission, the trader is classified either as "commercial" or "non-commercial." All of a trader's reported futures positions in a commodity are classified as commercial if the trader uses futures contracts in that particular commodity for hedging as defined in the Commission's regulations (1.3(z)). A trading entity generally gets classified as a "commercial" by filing a statement with the Commission (on CFTC Form 40) that it is commercially "…engaged in business activities hedged by the use of the futures or option markets." In order to ensure that traders are classified with accuracy and consistency, the Commission staff may exercise judgment in re-classifying a trader if it has additional information about the trader’s use of the markets.
A trader may be classified as a commercial in some commodities and as a non-commercial in other commodities. A single trading entity cannot be classified as both a commercial and non-commercial in the same commodity. Nonetheless, a multi-functional organization that has more than one trading entity may have each trading entity classified separately in a commodity. For example, a financial organization trading in financial futures may have a banking entity whose positions are classified as commercial and have a separate money-management entity whose positions are classified as non-commercial
The fundamental purpose of the commodity exchanges is to provide a centralized market to transfer the risk of price fluctuation from producers, holders of physical inventory, and actual end users, to the speculators.
For example, a farmer has grain to sell at harvest, and the food processors have demand daily throughout the year. Someone has to hold the grain from the November harvest through the entire following year as the supply is gradually consumed by the producers and users.
Producers and users can contract for "forward" delivery in the "cash , or spot, market" amongst themselves. A farmer can deliver his grain to a grain elevator and receive the cash price for grain at that location. Or, a farmer can contract with the elevator operator to deliver his grain in, say 30 days, at an agree upon "forward price."
The grain elevator is a business that operates (for a profit) to accumulate, or hold in inventory, and deliver grain to end users. This however, can result in local market prices being controlled too closely by either the user and producer.
A centralized exchange, with standardized quality and delivery, results in a fairer pricing discovery for all concerned. Prices throughout the world can be quoted in terms of say, Chicago Board of Trade corn prices, merely by considering the "basis" differences between actual locations of the grain.
BASIS
Basis is generally the difference between the local cash price, and the price of the Exchange traded contract. This difference is basically the cost of shipping, insurance, and inventory charges to deliver the product to the Exchange approved centralized location.
For example, corn prices at a given grain elevator in Minnesota could be $2.25 per bushel when the current futures contract at the Chicago Board of Trade is trading at , say $2.50. The 25 cent difference, or basis, generally should not exceed the costs of transporting grain from the elevator in Minnesota to the Exchange approved elevator in St. Louis. If the price per bushel in the two different locations were out of line after considering basis, businesses would arbitrage the price disparity by arranging deliveries between locations to take advantage of price differences.
A special type of future's trading account category is provided by the FCM's for the producers, holders and users of the actual commodities, called a "hedge account, or, commercial account." Since they have the actual commodity to deliver, or plan to take delivery, they have special "hedge margins."
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MARGINS
TO UNDERSTAND THE "COMMERCIALS" WE NEED TO UNDERSTAND MARGINS .
The Exchanges establish required "Exchange minimum margins" for each commodity traded. In commodity trading, margin is more like a performance bond as compared to the margin as referred to in a stock market account. FCM's can require margins higher than the Exchange minimum.
In the stock market, a securities firm will lend you funds, for a stated interest rate, based on the securities and equity in your account. For example you can by $5,000 of a stock by paying $2,500, and borrowing $2,500 from the firm to complete the transaction. The firm would hold the registration of the stock you purchased as collateral for the loan. You could be subject to a "margin call" by the securities firm if the value of your stock drops below a given collateral level. A margin call is a request for additional funds to collateralize the loan to hold the stock. Rather than meet the margin call, you might sell some or all of the stock.
In the commodity markets, "margins" are distinctly different.
As I said above, commodity market margins are more like performance bonds. You can purchase a contract for 5,000 bushels of corn for, say, $2.50 per bushel, and have an initial margin requirement on the position of, say, $500, and maintenance of, say $400.
If the margin was calculated like a stock market type margin, you would be purchasing 5,000 bu times $2.50/bu or $12,500 of corn. You would put up a portion of the money and borrow the rest, and pay interest, to complete the transaction. This is the way the transaction would be handled on the "cash market" side of the transaction if you were hedger.
In the Future's market, the margin is only an amount equal to a calculated expected (about two standard deviations) movement in price. Each day accounts are "settled", which means cash is transferred between holders of contracts for the daily profit or loss.
If you were long 5,000bushels corn (one contract unit) and the price increased 3 cents, $150 (5,000 bushels times $.03) would be credited to your account that evening. If you started with, say just $500 in your account and long 5,000bu corn (one contract unit), as of the close you now have $650 and long 5,000bu corn (one contract unit).
What if you were on the other side of this transaction? You started the day with, say just $500 in your account and short 5,000bu corn (you were speculating that prices were going to drop). Corn prices rose 3 cents, so $150 is "settled" out of your account. As of the close, you now have $350 in your account and short 5,000bu corn. Here is where the "maintenance" becomes important.
As I said above the initial margin was $500, and maintenance $400. The maintenance level is the amount the speculator must maintain in his account, or be subject to a "margin call." In my example above, you now only have $350 in your account, so you have a "margin call" to bring your account back up to the initial margin level, or liquidate your position immediately. Margin calls must be met the same day (typically by wiring funds so they are available the same day.) Obviously, to avoid margin calls, you should start out with more than the initial margin in your account.
The Commercial hedger has "special margins." The initial and maintenance margin are equal to the speculators maintenance margin amount. In my example above, both initial and maintenance for the commercial hedger would be $400 per contract.
Further, since the markets generally exist to produce fair pricing and delivery for their product, their hedged positions are generally not subject to speculative position limits.
To monitor their use of these "special privileges", as compared to the speculator, their accounts are maintained in a separate and distinct manner to facilitate monitoring and reporting of information to the regulatory agency.
The Commercial hedger can
also be a speculator.
The grain elevator can sense that growing conditions may not be as favorable as previously thought, and can take outright long or short positions to attempt to profit from changing price trends. When the Commercial hedger takes speculative positions, regular speculative margins and position limits then apply to their positions not covered by direct hedges.
Speculative positions of a Commercial hedger are maintained in the hedge account. Thus when a Commercial has a reportable account, the account includes both hedged positions as well as speculative positions.
Reportable accounts (large accounts) are reported to the CFTC. If the "large" account that is reported is taking advantage of "hedge margins" it will likely be reflected in the Commitments of Traders Report as a "Commercial Position."
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THE "LARGE
SPECULATOR"
Reportable accounts (large accounts) are reported to the CFTC. If the "large" account that is reported is not a "hedge account" it will be reflected in the Commitments of Traders Report as a "Large Speculator."
The speculator has a profit motive to buy or sell based on his individual perception of anticipated price movements. The markets are established to transfer price risk to the willing speculator.
However, as I explained above, speculators can try to be bigger than the market and attempt to create artificial price movements by "cornering" the contracts outstanding.
The CFTC monitors this possible activity by requiring the FCMs to report account activity and positions where there is more than a given number of contracts (meets the reportable position level) held by or on behalf of the account owner. These are called "special accounts".
If the "special account" deals in the "cash or spot" market and uses the futures for hedging, and has a hedge account to receive favorable margin requirements and position limit exceptions on hedged positions, it is considered a Commercial account. All other "special accounts" are considered the "Large Speculators."
The CFTC requires reporting of these accounts in order to review positions and trading activity in light of rules on position limits, as well as other regulations.
Some years back, the "large specs" were primarily individuals that were considered the "big players" in the future's markets. Today, the growth of the managed money in the commodity pools to the billions of dollars, is such that the "large specs" are viewed as the positions of the commodity pools. Many of the commodity pools today are managed by the "big players" of the past, or traded according to with their trading strategies.
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THE "SMALL SPECULATOR"
The category of the small speculator account is simply all other accounts, commercial hedger and individual speculator, that have positions less than the level (number of contracts) that requires special reporting to the CFTC.
A farmer with say one thousand acres of Soybeans expecting 38 bushels per acre yield might hedge his crop in the futures market. (1,000 acres X 38 bu per acre = 38,000 bu) He would qualify for a "hedge account" because he deals in the cash market and uses futures for hedging. The hedge account would give him favorable margin rules. If his futures position was a hedge on his entire crop, he would not have a "reportable position" (soybean reportable position is over 500,000 bu) and therefore his account would be reflected as a "small spec" position in the COT Report from the CFTC.
Or consider the Commodity Pool operater trading a large amount of capital for investors. If he is holding a position less than 500,000 bu of soybeans, he would be grouped with the category of the small speculators. But then, let's say, according to his trading plan he adds additional positions, he may now exceed 500,000 bu and now have a "reportable position" and his position would be grouped in the COT report as part of the "large spec" positions. If, as of the following Tuesday's close his position was back down to 400,000 bu of soybeans, his position would not be reported, and therefore he would be part of the group of "small specs."
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THE "SPREADER"
To complete the explanation of the Commitment of Traders Report, one additional category is reported by the CFTC for "spread positions."
A spread position is where a trader has both long and short positions in a given commodity, such as long May Soybeans, and short July Soybeans.
When a spreader has a "reportable position", the COT Report shows the position as a special category in the report.
If the spreader with a reportable position were a "commercial," the long side of the spread would be included in total large commercial longs, and the short side of the spread in commercial shorts.
When studying the COT Report from the point of view of the "net" commercial position, the reportable commercial spread position would net out of the analysis.
Special margins and position limits are established by the exchanges for approved types of spread positions.
The spread positions considered in the COT report are only spreads within that specific market (ie Dec heating oil vs Feb heating oil). Inter market spreads, ie Dec heating oil vs Dec unleaded gasoline, are reflected as their separate pieces in heating oil and in unleaded gasoline.
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Understanding the Commercial
Physical commodities
Agriculture: grain elevators, food processors
Metals: mining companies, jewelry manufactures
In the physical commodities the "commercials" are the producers or users of the actual commodity. It is there business to know when prices are cheap or dear. They also are highly sensitive to amount of the commodity available and expected to be available. They understand the factors of supply and demand for the commodities they deal in.
Monitoring the "open interest" of the commercials in the physical commodities can tell us a great deal about the coming trends.
Financial commodities: Bond dealers, International Banks, Stock market traders, Mutual funds, Hedge funds
In the financial commodities the commercials are the large investment portfolios that use the futures to hedge portfolio risk. The CFTC requires any large account to declare whether or not the position in the futures is as a portfolio hedge or for a speculative reason. Following the net position of the hedgers in the financial markets can give us a look into the collective minds of the major portfolio managers. Reviewing the history of the net commercial position has shown us that the net collective "smart money" opinion is a valuable tool in following market valuations.
It is often incorrectly said that the "arbitrage" positions are reflected in the commercial category. The CFTC considers arbitrage positions to be speculative positions.
Because of the high level of liquidity in the financial market cash markets, the "arbs" provide liquidity to the futures markets by buying in the cash market and selling in the futures market trying to capture a high volume of small price differences, generally a speculative activity though admittedly speculative only until the arb is complete. The swings in their net position is not generally based on a perceived "value" in the underlying commodity, but rather their net position changes based on speculative demand in the underlying futures market.
From time to time, arbitrage activity does take place in the commercial hedge accounts and is referred to as "portfolio enhancement." As long as the arbitrage positions in commercial hedge accounts is incidental to the overall hedge activity of the commercial account, the classification as a commercial account is not changed.
Remember, while you or I can have a hedge account and deal in futures versus the cash
market, ONLY the LARGE REPORTABLE positions are reflected in the CFTC COT Report.
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TRADING STRATEGIES
Trading Tip: A "trending market" will have a growing
net position of Large Speculators. While in my Commitments of Traders .com
commentary I look for markets where the
trend may be changing, the COT report can also be use to find market trends that are still
developing.
TRADING STRATEGY FOLLOWED IN COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS .com:
REPORT BACKGROUND AND TRADING STRATEGIES
BACKGROUND: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission requires clearing firms (firms that hold commodity trading accounts) to report daily the customer large positions that exceed a number of contracts, called a "reportable position". If the customer with a reportable position holds the position in a "hedge account" (because he is a "dealer" in the cash markets) he is identified to the CFTC as a "Commercial" account. Generally the overall Commercial position will be net long when goods are cheap or dear, and net short when overpriced or in abundance.
Reportable positions that are not in hedge accounts are referred to as the "Large Speculator" accounts. Generally the Large Speculators are the large commodity pools - generally trend followers. So a large net position by the Large Specs would indicate that a trend has been in place for some time in a given market. As the trend pushes to extremes, the net Large Specs are usually opposite net Commercials.
Key to understanding the significance of the report is that the holders of futures contracts are always at a zero sum. For every long position there is a offsetting short position. If one group has a very large net position in a market, there must be an offsetting group of market participants that have a very short position. Knowing "who is doing what" is considered useful information to market participants.
Every week, the CFTC issues the "Commitments of Traders Report" summarizing the "reportable positions" as of the previous Tuesday for all traded futures contracts. The Weekly Summary page in this Web site is a summary of information from the Government report for selected markets. Tables showing the last 12 weeks of data for certain markets are created from current and past data reported by the CFTC.
| TRADING STRATEGY BASED ON
THE NET COMMERCIAL POSITION: Traders often follow the Net Position of
the Commercials under the assumption that the "dealers" in the
cash markets know more about those markets than anyone else. When the
Net Position of the Commercials is near their all time record or 5 year
record net LONG position, it suggests the Commercials feel strongly that
the price level is very cheap. When the Net Position of the
Commercials is near their all time record or 5 year record net SHORT
position, it suggests that they feel strongly that the price level is
very high. When this occurs, some Traders monitor the market with
"technical indicators" to look for indications of a change in
trend in the direction of the Net Commercial position. If the trend has
turned, consider the possibility that the trend following Large Specs
might begin to reverse their positions, and push the market in the
direction of the net Commercial position.
This Web site contains a listing of the "12 Week Summary of the Net Commercial Positions in selected markets. Markets are identified as "on watch" when the net commercial position is within 95% of their 5 year record. (The "v" or "v-" following the net position in the 12 week summary indicates if the net position is within 95% of the high of the five year range indicating a buy signal watch, or within 5% of the low of the five year range indicating a sell signal watch.) Consider trades using "technical signals" to identify a possible change in trend following the direction of the net commercial position. If the trend has turned, consider the possibility that the trend following Large Specs might begin to reverse their positions, and push the market in the direction of the net Commercial position. Consider the following trading strategy: A market is considered "on watch" when the net commercial position is within 95% of it's 5 year record net long or net short in the past six weeks. For a market that is on "buy watch", enter a buy trade on a breakout above the previous two week high. For a "sell alert", enter a sell on a breakout below the two week low. On "buy trades", trail your stop $60 to $80 per contract below the two week low (above the two week high for sell trades). Adjust your entry levels and stops levels each Monday based on the previous two weeks. Consider exiting an open trade when it goes "off watch" (more than six weeks since the net position was within 95% of the 5 year record net position, three to four weeks for currencies), or use the trailing stop as the exit. In the currency markets, I suggest you consider the net commercial position as a market direction "watch indicator" only for three or four weeks after the net position begins to reduce from the record or near record levels. The commercials in the currency markets are generally the international banks providing liquidity to the futures markets through cash market arbitrage. They buy or sell futures versus the cash market for an arbitrage profit of fractions of a tick. The record, or near five year record , net position is not necessarily a statement by the commercials that a given currency market is cheap or dear, but rather a statement that the trend has been in place long enough for the commercials to have built arbitrage positions to levels near where in the past the market has reversed long enough to allow the net commercial position to move in the other direction. |
| TRADING STRATEGY BASED ON THE NET SMALL SPEC POSITION: The Small Specs are generally the small individual trader. The small individual traders are generally considered to be wrong most often. When their positions are near the one, three, or five year record it can be used as an indicator of extreme optimism or pessimism that can be use as a "contrary indicator." An extreme position by the Small Specs opposite a position by the Net Commercials can identify markets with above normal potential for profit in the direction of the Net Commercial position. |
| TRADING STRATEGY BASED ON NET LARGE SPEC POSITIONS: The Large Specs are generally the "trend following" Commodity Pools. Positions approaching the one year record range can be viewed as an indicator of a solid trend in place. Trend continuation "technical" signals might be considered. Positions approaching the five year record can be viewed as an indicator that the trend may be nearing extreme levels. Trend reversal "technical" signals might then be considered. |
| TRADING STRATEGY BASED ON TOTAL OPEN INTEREST: Some Traders believe that "Total Open Interest" will increase when the Commercials increase their hedging, and decrease when the Commercials decrease their hedging. Therefore, increases in "Total Open Interest" might be considered an indicator of a coming price decline, and decreases in "Total Open Interest" might be considered as an indicator of a coming upward price movement. |
| TRADING STRATEGY BASED ON NET OPTION DATA: Since the time of the caveman, option traders have lost money. The NET OPTION DATA for the "small spec" tells us what the individual option traders as a group are doing. As a group, these are the most consistent money losers. If they are going heavy in a given direction in a given commodity we should consider positions opposite that group, either in futures positions or short option positions. (IE. If they have a large net long position we can assume they are long calls and we should consider short call positions or short futures positions.) |
| TRADING STRATEGY BASED ON %COT:
*** The index shows a net buying or selling by commercials and is calculated by simply adding up the column of the net commercial positions, but reverse the sign on the interest rates, the stock indexes, and the Dollar index. That way they are all a reflection of the net commercials anticipating higher or lower commodity prices This total can then be viewed as a composite indicator of the activity of the over all markets that can signal broad general trend changes in overall commodity prices when extreme levels are reached. At extreme levels in the %COT (ie near the high or low of the 5 year range) consider restricting your trading strategies in the commodity markets to trading with the direction of the net commercial %COT. I created the index to identify major trends in commodity prices and to help forecast the Stock Indexes. (Anticipating higher commodity prices means interest rates go higher and therefore lower Bonds and stocks). The rising net commercial %COT says the net commercials think commodities in general are rising and the Fed should be raising interest rates to fight inflation and rising interest rates often cause the Stock Market goes down. But once at the maximum extreme - somewhere in the range of the five year record - prices should peak and start to come down and the net commercial %COT should also start to come down, signaling an end to the rising commodity prices and interest rate tightening and the beginning of a interest rate decline and a stock market recovery. *** |
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INTRODUCING %COT
The "%COT" is an indicator created from the reported positions in about 40 different markets. (The ones I list in my weekly report.) The purpose of the indicator is to try to identify when the community of commercials have position that suggests a general overall price rise or a general price decline.
A "net long" commercial position in most physical commodities (metals, grains, energy, etc) by the commercials suggests prices will be rising. A weak dollar (strong currency futures) also suggests rising inflation. To create the indicator, the net position of commercials is added, with the following exceptions and adjustments:
Inflation is viewed as bearish for interest rates, stock and dollar indexes, so the sign (+ or -) of the net position is reversed.
The %COT can be plotted with the CRB index to evaluate whether we can get some insights as to general commodity trends.
They seem to do a good job in calling the three to six month general commodity price moves. I report this index with my bi-weekly COT report, and the index is plotted one year, three year and twn year charts of the CRB, Gold, and the S&P in the charting section of the Commitments of Traders. com web site.
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I hope the above information is helpful in developing an understanding of the COT report. New traders need any edge they can get to help them survive the early years of trading while they develop their own trading style. Following the Net Commercial position in the COT report may give the edge that may help the new trader make it past the threshold time needed to develop your individual trading strategy.
The Commitments of Traders .com Web Site shows weekly summaries of the Government report, and 1 year, 3 year, and 10 year charts of selected markets with the COT data plotted to allow the reader to make judgments on the likely success of following the net commercials or the large or small speculator in the markets.
Data files of the COT data for the individual markets is also posted at the web site.
Thanks,
Good luck and good trading,
George Slezak
Editor, Commitments of Traders .com