On March 7, 2008, in my weekly Commitments of Traders commentary, I explained that the commodity bubble was the result of the commodity index fund "investment demand" for consumable commodities being thrown on markets that only produce to meet consumption. CLICK HERE to see that commentary in a PDF file.

Then, on March 14, 2008, in my weekly Commitments of Traders commentary, I explained that the bubble would burst on it's own, but looking forward, unless we ban commodities from "investment" through indexes, we need to understand that there now is the need to create an investment supply of commodities. CLICK HERE to see that commentary in a PDF file.

Then, on March 21, 2008, in my weekly Commitments of Traders commentary, I said: IF OIL GOES DOWN, THEN OATS GO DOWN. I have explained that the commodity bull/bubble ran on the commodity index demand, and now we need to understand that the commodity bear will run based on the liquidation of the commodity indexes, not the fundamentals of the individual markets. I explained that the commodity bubble and bursting will be much like the housing bubble and burst. Once investment demand reduces and tries to liquidate, the normal consumption market will not be able to absorb the supply. CLICK HERE to see that commentary in a PDF file.

Good luck and good trading!

George

All aspects of any trade recommendations contained in this report are subject to modification at any time. 

ANY STATEMENT OF FACTS HEREIN CONTAINED ARE DERIVED FROM SOURCES BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE, BUT ARE NOT GUARANTEED AS TO ACCURACY, NOR DO THEY PURPORT TO BE COMPLETE. A STOP LOSS MAY NOT LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE AMOUNT INTENDED. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES FINANCIAL RISK AND SHOULD BE CONSIDERED CAREFULLY BEFORE MAKING ANY TRADES. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

YOU SHOULD BE FOREWARNED THAT SYSTEMS WHICH TRIGGER FREQUENT TRADING SIGNALS AS PART OF A DAY TRADING STRATEGY CAN RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL COMMISSIONS AND FEES.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES REGARDING HYPOTHETICAL RESULTS

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE RISK OF LOSS EXISTS IN FUTURES TRADING