Note: GREY BACKGROUND items on this commentary page do not change
from week to week.
Comments and trade recommendations are selected from the markets
that are highlighted with light green or light red in the 12
week summary of net commercial positions and in the 12
week summary of net commercial positions "with options" .
The markets highlighted in light green or red
are markets where the position of the
net commercial hedge traders are near the FIVE YEAR record net high or
net low number of contracts. The strategy followed in this web
site is usually to then trade on a breakout of the two week
high/low, in the direction of the net commercial position, with stops at the opposite two week high/low.
The 12
week summary schedules also identify when the net commercial
positions are near the high or low of their ONE YEAR or THREE
YEAR range. They are then highlighted in yellow and identified by I or III
(or I- or III- ) in the columns. I recommend that if you consider
trades following the net commercials in markets where the net
commercial position is near the one year or three year range that
you use
a shorter term trading strategy with daily monitoring.
My choice of markets for comment or
trade recommendation is not suggested as the optimal choices. I am
not commenting, and I am not making trade recommendations on
every market highlighted in the 12 week summaries.
All aspects of any trade
recommendations contained in this report are subject to
modification at any time.
FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES
SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE AND THE
RISK OF LOSS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED CAREFULLY BEFORE MAKING ANY
TRADES. A STOP LOSS MAY NOT LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE AMOUNT
INTENDED. YOU SHOULD BE FOREWARNED THAT SYSTEMS WHICH
TRIGGER FREQUENT TRADING SIGNALS AS PART OF A DAY TRADING STRATEGY
CAN RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL COMMISSIONS AND FEES. PAST PERFORMANCE
IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. ANY STATEMENT OF
FACTS HEREIN CONTAINED ARE DERIVED FROM SOURCES BELIEVED TO BE
RELIABLE, BUT ARE NOT GUARANTEED AS TO ACCURACY, NOR DO THEY
PURPORT TO BE COMPLETE.
ANY REFERENCE TO PERFORMANCE IS
INTENDED TO BE UNDERSTOOD AS STRICTLY THEORETICAL.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES REGARDING
HYPOTHETICAL RESULTS
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS
HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW.
NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY
TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT,
THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED
BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY
PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL
TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL
TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL
RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND
LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF
TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT
ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED
TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC
TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE
PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH
CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. PAST PERFORMANCE IS
NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE RISK OF
LOSS EXISTS IN FUTURES TRADING.
All
traders should read the CFTC
CONSUMER ALERTS and the "COMMISSION
ADVISORY" on trading systems.
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