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CHART PAGE OF THE SUPPLEMENTAL COT REPORT DATA

The weekly summary of the Supplemental CIT Report can be found by clicking on the above button    Supplemental CIT Report             

 

The charts of this page begin with the Continuous Commodity Index (old equal weighted CRB) with the combined totals of the CIT Supplement plotted.

Then follows the charts of the 12 commodities covered by the supplemental report and their supplemental data plotted.

 

In the following charts, 

the net small spec is in yellow, 
net large spec is in green
net commercial is in red,
 
and net commodity index trader in blue

Each color is plotted relative to it's own range over the time period displayed. If in a given chart the largest net small spec was 500 and the largest net commercial was 50,000, they would both be at the top of their respective range and plotted at the highest point in their chart.

FOLLOWING ARE THE SUMMARY DATA FILES FROM THE DATA IN THE 
SUPPLEMENTAL COT REPORT

CIT data files The links at the left are to the COT files of the supplemental COT report.

The data is in the following format:

date,
date number,
Non Reportable (small commercial and small spec) longs,
Non Reportable (small commercial and small spec) shorts,
Reportable Non-Commercial (large spec) longs,
Reportable Non-Commercial ( large spec) shorts,
Reportable Commercial longs,
Reportable Commercial shorts,
Reportable Commodity Index Trader longs,
Reportable Commodity Index Trader shorts,
Total open interest.

Wheat
KC Wheat
Corn
Soybeans
Soybean Oil
Cotton
Lean Hogs
Lv Cattle
Feeder
Cocoa
Sugar No11
Coffee
TOTALS
 
 

ONE YEAR, THREE YEAR, AND FIVE YEARS CHARTS WITH THE SUPPLEMENTAL DATA PLOTTED ARE NOW ON THE CHART PAGE. SEE http://www.futuresemail.com/cot/cotcharts.htm 

CONTINUOUS COMMODITY INDEX (old equal weighted CRB) WITH THE COMBINED TOTALS OF THE CIT SUPPLEMENT PLOTTED: The data files for the the 12 files included in the supplemental report are combined and the combined total is plotted as the colored lines in the following chart.

 data file 

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WHEAT   data file 

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KANSAS WHEAT      data file 

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CORN      data file 

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SOYBEANS      data file 

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SOYBEAN OIL      data file 

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COTTON      data file 

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LEAN HOGS      data file 

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LV CATTLE      data file 

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FEEDER CATTLE      data file 

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COCOA      data file 

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SUGAR NO 11      data file 

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COFFEE      data file 

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In the following May 25, 2007, free weekly commentary I explained a strategy for using the new Supplemental COT data report.

"SPECIAL SITUATION"

Now, it is time to quit opining about the big bad Commodity Index Funds being so big and potentially bad, and begin to use the information in individual markets to try to gain a trading advantage.

In three of the twelve markets covered by the new "Supplemental Report", in SUGAR, COFFEE, AND KANSAS WHEAT, we have setups which I think we will all call "SPECIAL SITUATION" trading opportunities.

In the past the "special situations" in the COT data have been when the net commercials are at or near a five year record net position and the reported non commercial (large spec) and the non reported (small spec) positions opposite are also at or near their five year record net position. So if the Commercials were record long and the large spec and small spec were record short, we would call that a special situation and monitor the market for a possible change in trend. The "special" part was the basic market dysfunction of having longer term longs based on fundamental value opposite trading shorts that in the event of a trend change will want to reverse positions.

The new "special situation" I see in the supplemental COT Report is when the Commercials have their smallest hedge in the last year (we only have CIT data reported since January 2007, and calculated back to January 2006, so we can only look at data back just over a year), the Commodity Index Funds have their largest long position in the last year, and the reported non commercial (large Spec) and the non reported (small spec) have their largest net short in the last year.

So now here is a real Mexican standoff (is this still a politically correct expression?). The longs are the index funds. The net commercials are short but seeing value and trying to cover, evidenced by their smallest short relative to the last year. The reported non commercial (large specs) are at their largest short on the past year, and the non reported (small spec) are also at their largest short in the last year. So everyone is net short against the Index Fund longs. 

And the index fund longs are insensitive to the individual commodity fundamentals or trading. As a group, we can say the index fund longs exist generally because someone made an allocation of investment funds  to commodities as an asset class and invested in an index and these commodity index fund positions are simply the allocation of funds across the individual pieces of the index. So the new "special" setup is a total market dysfunction because everyone that is sensitive to market price, the commercials, the large traders and the small traders are all net short. Who will supply longs for them to get out of shorts and move to long if the trend makes a solid turn to the upside? Who? (See the WEEKLY SUMMARY OF THE SUPPLEMENTAL CFTC REPORT to see when they are "all short".)

Subscribers to my web sites (the $35 per month charged month to month to a pay pal account gives access to the table and charts in this COT web site and my other other web sites that focus on the COT data as  the primary factor in making market timing calls; Stock Index Timing .com, Commodity Index Timing .com, The Gold Bull .com and Beans in the Teens .com ) can view charts of the 12 markets in the Supplemental COT Report with the new data plotted over the price movement of the commodity future and easily see the special relationship of the Commodity Index Fund positions to the Commercials and others.

 

 

 

 

Beginning in 2002, the CFTC will release the "with options" data on Friday evenings at the same time as the "futures only" reports. The weekly commentary on the "Net Options" summary will be combined into the "futures only" commentary.

Commitments of Traders calendar of 2004 CFTC release dates.  Weekly Commitments of Traders Reports are released by the CFTC every Friday after the close of business, effective for the prior Tuesdays. The release dates may be adjusted to accommodate holidays. Usually, the www.commitmentsoftraders.com Internet Edition of the Commitments of Traders Report is updated with the new CFTC information by 4 PM Central time after the release of the "futures only data." 

The CFTC has posted a background report of the COT Report. See Backgrounder-The Commitments of Traders Report The Report contains general background information and detailed explanatory notes for the short form, the long form, and the options-and-futures-combined reports.

Beginning in January 2002, the CFTC releases the futures data combined with the net deltas of option positions on each Friday evening. The weekly report shows the information as of the close for the previous Tuesday.

The tables in this Web site are summaries of selected data obtained from the report issued by an agency of the US Government, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The entire report can be obtained from http://www.cftc.gov/ .

The "v" or "v-" following the net position in the 12 week summary tables indicates if the net position is within 95% of the high of the five year range, or within 5% of the low of the five year range. "I" or "I-" indicate within 95% or 5 % of the one year range. "III" or "III-" indicate within 95% or 5% of the three year range.

Footnotes on data presented:

  • All data has been drawn from the CFTC website and begins with January 1986. Accuracy of the data is not guarenteed by the CFTC or by the publisher in any way.
  • Lumber changed with the May 96 contract to 80,000  board feet from 160,000. Open interest data for prior to May 96 is doubled and reflected in the current information.
  • S&P open interest data prior to 10/31/97 has been restated by doubling such amounts to reflect the change in the multiplier from $500 per point to $250.
  • Lean 
  • Hog data is combined with the Live Hog data from prior to the contract change in 1997.
  • The Feeder Cattle contract change from 44,000 pounds to 50,000 pounds with the Jan 1993 contract did not result in a change in CFTC reporting.
  • The change in the Grain contracts 12/31/97 from stated in number of thousands of bushels to contracts of 5,000 bu is reflected in past data by dividing the published numbers by 5.

C 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002,2003,2004 George Slezak
For more information call George at 1-888-311-3400

All aspects of any trade recommendations contained in this report are subject to modification at any time. 

FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE AND THE RISK OF LOSS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED CAREFULLY BEFORE MAKING ANY TRADES. A STOP LOSS MAY NOT LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE AMOUNT INTENDED.  YOU SHOULD BE FOREWARNED THAT SYSTEMS WHICH TRIGGER FREQUENT TRADING SIGNALS AS PART OF A DAY TRADING STRATEGY CAN RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL COMMISSIONS AND FEES. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. ANY STATEMENT OF FACTS HEREIN CONTAINED ARE DERIVED FROM SOURCES BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE, BUT ARE NOT GUARANTEED AS TO ACCURACY, NOR DO THEY PURPORT TO BE COMPLETE.

ANY REFERENCE TO PERFORMANCE IS INTENDED TO BE UNDERSTOOD AS STRICTLY THEORETICAL. 

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES REGARDING HYPOTHETICAL RESULTS

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE RISK OF LOSS EXISTS IN FUTURES TRADING.

All traders should read the  CFTC CONSUMER ALERTS and the "COMMISSION ADVISORY" on trading systems.

 

Hit Counter

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