The charts of this page begin with the Continuous Commodity Index (old equal weighted CRB) with the combined totals of the CIT Supplement plotted.

Then follows the charts of the 12 commodities covered by the supplemental report and their supplemental data plotted.

In the following charts, 

the net small spec is in yellow, 
net large spec is in green
net commercial is in red, 
and net commodity index trader in blue

Each color is plotted relative to it's own range over the time period displayed. If in a given chart the largest net small spec was 500 and the largest net commercial was 50,000, they would both be at the top of their respective range and plotted at the highest point in their chart.

"SPECIAL SITUATION"

Now, it is time to quit opining about the big bad Commodity Index Funds being so big and potentially bad, and begin to use the information in individual markets to try to gain a trading advantage.

In three of the twelve markets covered by the new "Supplemental Report", in SUGAR, COFFEE, AND KANSAS WHEAT, we have setups which I think we will all call "SPECIAL SITUATION" trading opportunities.

In the past the "special situations" in the COT data have been when the net commercials are at or near a five year record net position and the reported non commercial (large spec) and the non reported (small spec) positions opposite are also at or near their five year record net position. So if the Commercials were record long and the large spec and small spec were record short, we would call that a special situation and monitor the market for a possible change in trend. The "special" part was the basic market dysfunction of having longer term longs based on fundamental value opposite trading shorts that in the event of a trend change will want to reverse positions.

The new "special situation" I see in the supplemental COT Report is when the Commercials have their smallest hedge in the last year (we only have CIT data reported since January 2007, and calculated back to January 2006, so we can only look at data back just over a year), the Commodity Index Funds have their largest long position in the last year, and the reported non commercial (large Spec) and the non reported (small spec) have their largest net short in the last year.

So now here is a real Mexican standoff (is this still a politically correct expression?). The longs are the index funds. The net commercials are short but seeing value and trying to cover, evidenced by their smallest short relative to the last year. The reported non commercial (large specs) are at their largest short on the past year, and the non reported (small spec) are also at their largest short in the last year. So everyone is net short against the Index Fund longs. 

And the index fund longs are insensitive to the individual commodity fundamentals or trading. As a group, we can say the index fund longs exist generally because someone made an allocation of investment funds  to commodities as an asset class and invested in an index and these commodity index fund positions are simply the allocation of funds across the individual pieces of the index. So the new "special" setup is a total market dysfunction because everyone that is sensitive to market price, the commercials, the large traders and the small traders are all net short. Who will supply longs for them to get out of shorts and move to long if the trend makes a solid turn to the upside? Who? (See the WEEKLY SUMMARY OF THE SUPPLEMENTAL CFTC REPORT to see when they are "all short".)

Subscribers to my web sites (the $35 per month charged month to month to a pay pal account gives access to the table and charts in this COT web site and my other other web sites that focus on the COT data as  the primary factor in making market timing calls; Stock Index Timing .com, Commodity Index Timing .com, The Gold Bull .com and Beans in the Teens .com ) can view charts of the 12 markets in the Supplemental COT Report with the new data plotted over the price movement of the commodity future and easily see the special relationship of the Commodity Index Fund positions to the Commercials and others.