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Click here to see the NEW COT "WEEKLY SUMMARY OF THE DISAGGREGATED CFTC REPORT." Transition to a strong dollar, part 2 For weeks I have been warning about the transition to strong dollar markets. The strong dollar will eventually stand on the fundamental of the US economy stronger than the rest of the world. When we get to that point, commodity prices will be based on the old fashioned balance of US supply and demand. The next phase of the transition to the strong dollar market would NORMALLY be the "J" curve accumulation of US goods. At the point of the turn in the currency, foreign buyers of US goods find an advantage in buying goods forward, anticipating that the stronger dollar trend will makes those goods cost more later. The problem we will have to face is if the foreign accumulation of US goods anticipating the stronger dollar can exceed the supply being dumped on the market from the liquidation of commodity index funds that were accumulated as weak dollar based commodity investments, like crude and Gold. Do you see this issue? We have NEVER faced this before because the popular commodity index funds did not exist in past dollar cycle turns. I think the key to individual commodity trading will be to look to trade commodity markets with the understanding which markets are dominant in the commodity indexes. Markets like crude and gold will have an edge on the sell side because the strengthening dollar will bring sellers. Buy side trading will have a better chance of success if you can also find times when the dollar up trend may be in a pause or short term contra trend correction. Good luck and good trading! George |
Charts
of Supplemental Report data
NEW SHORTCUT TO THIS WEB PAGE www.cot1.com OPEN TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS: Following are the open trade recommendations in this free weekly commentary. Subscribers should see Commodity Index Timing .com (shortcut www.cit1.com ) and Stock Index Timing .com (shortcut www.sit1.com ) for further recommendations. OPEN FUTURES OPTION TRADE RECOMMENDATION: HOLD the JULY 2010 SUGAR 11 cent put bought for 50 or better on 5/18/09. In sugar each 1.00 cent is $1,120, so 50 points is 50 times $11.20 or $560. Risk the net premium plus commission
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NOTE TO SUBSCRIBERS: WEEKLY
OPEN INTEREST SUMMARIES ARE POSTED ON SEPARATE PAGES. Click on the
above links Futures
Only Chart and quote links BarChart See Futures Trading School for memos and other links of interest See background page for a possible "trading strategy." |
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PS Would you like me to consult with your firm on these or other matters? Call me at 239-947-9131, or email me at george@georgeslezak.com Email george@georgeslezak.com for more information.
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Comments
and trade recommendations are selected from the
markets that are highlighted with light green or light
red in the 12
week summary of reportable net commercial positions and in
the 12
week summary of reportable net commercial positions "with
options" . The markets highlighted in light
green or red are markets where the position of the net
commercial hedge traders are near the FIVE YEAR
record net high or net low number of contracts. The
strategy followed in this web site is usually to then
trade on a breakout of the two week high/low, in the
direction of the net commercial position, with stops
at the opposite two week high/low.
The 12 week summary schedules also identify when the reportable net commercial positions are near the high or low of their ONE YEAR or THREE YEAR range. They are then highlighted in yellow and identified by I or III (or I- or III- ) in the columns. I recommend that if you consider trades following the net commercials in markets where the reportable net commercial position is near the one year or three year range that you use a shorter term trading strategy with daily monitoring. My choice of markets for comment or trade recommendation is not suggested as the optimal choices. I am not commenting, and I am not making trade recommendations on every market highlighted in the 12 week summaries. All aspects of any trade recommendations contained in this report are subject to modification at any time. Beginning in 2002, the CFTC will release the "with options" data on Friday evenings at the same time as the "futures only" reports. The weekly commentary on the "Net Options" summary will be combined into the "futures only" commentary. Commitments of Traders calendar of 2009 CFTC release dates. Weekly Commitments of Traders Reports are released by the CFTC every Friday at 3:30 pm eastern, effective for the prior Tuesday's close. The release dates may be adjusted to accommodate holidays. Usually, the summaries of the CFTC COT Report in this web site are updated with the new CFTC information by 4 PM Eastern time after the release of the data. The weekly front month charts with the COT data plotted are usually updated by 7 PM.
Beginning in January 2002, the CFTC releases the futures data combined with the net deltas of option positions on each Friday evening. The weekly report shows the information as of the close for the previous Tuesday. The tables in this Web site are summaries of selected data obtained from the report issued by an agency of the US Government, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The entire report can be obtained from http://www.cftc.gov/ . The "v" or "v-" following the net position in the 12 week summary tables indicates if the net position is within 95% of the high of the five year range, or within 5% of the low of the five year range. "I" or "I-" indicate within 95% or 5 % of the one year range. "III" or "III-" indicate within 95% or 5% of the three year range. Footnotes on data presented:
C 1999-2006 George Slezak All aspects of any trade recommendations contained in this report are subject to modification at any time. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE AND THE RISK OF LOSS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED CAREFULLY BEFORE MAKING ANY TRADES. A STOP LOSS MAY NOT LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE AMOUNT INTENDED. YOU SHOULD BE FOREWARNED THAT SYSTEMS WHICH TRIGGER FREQUENT TRADING SIGNALS AS PART OF A DAY TRADING STRATEGY CAN RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL COMMISSIONS AND FEES. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. ANY STATEMENT OF FACTS HEREIN CONTAINED ARE DERIVED FROM SOURCES BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE, BUT ARE NOT GUARANTEED AS TO ACCURACY, NOR DO THEY PURPORT TO BE COMPLETE. ANY REFERENCE TO PERFORMANCE IS INTENDED TO BE UNDERSTOOD AS STRICTLY THEORETICAL. REGULATORY DISCLOSURES REGARDING HYPOTHETICAL RESULTS HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE RISK OF LOSS EXISTS IN FUTURES TRADING. All traders should read the CFTC CONSUMER ALERTS and the "COMMISSION ADVISORY" on trading systems. |
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